Former President Trump’s economic proposals would widen the national deficit by $7.5 trillion over 10 years, more than twice as much as Vice President Kamala Harris’s plans, according to a nonpartisan think tank.
In a report released October 7, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) found that Trump’s plan to extend the expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, along with his pledge to restore full expensing for certain equipment investments and to allow the $10,000 state and local tax deduction cap to expire, would cost $5.35 trillion over a decade. His plan to exempt overtime pay, Social Security benefits, and tip income from income taxes would add another $3.6 trillion to the deficit, the group said.
Trump’s proposal to lower the corporate tax rate to 15 percent for domestic manufacturers would cost another $200 billion, the CRFB said.
Trump has suggested imposing a blanket tariff to pay for many of his initiatives, but the CRFB estimated that doing so would generate only $2.7 trillion in revenue over a decade.
In all, Trump’s proposed tax cuts and spending increases would cost $10.2 trillion, while his proposed revenue increases and spending cuts would raise $3.7 trillion, according to the CRFB. When taking into account net interest, the total deficit impact would be $7.5 trillion.
Meanwhile, Harris’s economic plan would increase the deficit by $3.5 trillion over 10 years, the CRFB found, estimating that her proposal to extend the expiring TCJA provisions only for those earning less than $400,000 per year would cost $3 trillion over that period.
Among the other provisions Harris has proposed that would add to the deficit, those for expanding the child tax credit and the earned income tax credit would cost $1.4 trillion, and exempting tips from income tax and raising the minimum wage would cost $200 billion, the group estimated.
To pay for those provisions, Harris has proposed increasing the corporate tax rate to 28 percent and raising taxes on capital income, both realized and unrealized. The CRFB found that those two initiatives would generate $1.75 trillion over 10 years.
In all, Harris’s proposed tax cuts and spending increases would cost $7.25 trillion, while her proposed revenue increases and spending cuts would amount to $4.25 trillion, the CRFB found. Adding net interest brings the total deficit impact of her proposals to $3.5 trillion.
The CRFB noted that its estimates come with “a wide range of uncertainty,” and it included additional low- and high-cost estimates of the policy. For Trump, that means the cost for his plans could be as low as $1.45 trillion and as high as $15.15 trillion. And Harris’s plans could be revenue neutral or cost as much as $8.1 trillion.
ITEP Study
The CRFB report came the same day the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, a Democratic-aligned think tank, released its own study on Trump’s tax proposals.
ITEP, which analyzed Trump’s plan across seven different income groups, estimated that his proposals would lead to the wealthiest 1 percent of Americans — those earning more than $914,900 per year — receiving an average tax cut of $36,300. The next wealthiest 4 percent — those earning between $360,000 and $914,900 — would get an average tax cut of $7,160, the group said.
According to ITEP, everyone earning less than $360,000 per year would see a tax increase under Trump’s plan, with the poorest 20 percent of Americans — those earning less than $28,600 a year — facing an average tax increase of $790.